Incorrect Predictions | Week 4

Hi all!

Today, I will be discussing the top 10 incorrect predictions throughout history. The first 5 incorrect predictions, I have chosen from the powerpoint the professor gave us. The next 5 are incorrect predications that I found on the internet.

Predictions from Professors Powerpoint

1. "X-rays will prove to be a hoax." -Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society, 1883 
• Lord Kelvin did not have faith in modern medicine in the 1800's to understand how integral this technology would be in transforming medicine. X-rays provide one of the most accurate pictures of the human body for doctors to adequately understand their patients. Without x-rays, doctors would not have nearly as comprehensive of understandings on how to treat their patients. X-rays today, have a wide range of medical applications and are essential in treating most patients. X-rays can help confirm the presence or absence of a disease or injury- and are painless, non-invasive, and do not require any special preparation or recovery time. 
2.   "The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty- a fad" -The president of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford's lawyer not to invest in the Ford Motor company, 1903
• It is clear that deciding not to invest was the wrong decision that day. In 2013, 15.6 million motor vehicles were sold- proving that the automobile was not just a fad. After driving on the I-580 at 5:00 PM, it is hard to imagine a world without cars, as you sit there bumper to bumper, staring at what seems to be an infinite number of cars ahead of you. The president clearly undersold the idea of the automobiles and the mass success they would have in the future. Automobiles were not just a fad, they completely replaced the concept of using livestock as transportation completely. Animals were costly and much more time consuming as you needed to care and nurture the animal. A car on the other hand is dependable. 
3. "There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home" -Ken Olson, president, chairman, and founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, in a talk given to a 1977 world future society meeting in Boston.
• Ken clearly did not see the potential in individuals having computers. It is most likely because he could not possible imagine the vast amount of information that would readily available through the internet and the computer. It is also ironic since he is the president and founder of a company that was a major player in the computer industry in the 1960's. In fact, over 75% of households in 2011 had computers in there homes and the numbers continue to increase throughout the years, making this one of the most false predictions of its time. 
4. "A rocket will never be able to leave Earth's atmosphere." -New York Times, 1936
• This prediction is completely inaccurate because in 1969, Neil Armstrong stepped foot on the moon. Since then, there have been multiple excursions to outer space. Some have involved people exploring other planets while sometimes we just send machinery to outer space. However, at the end of the day, this predication was completely wrong since people and machinery have been to outer space. Companies like Space X for instance are starting and trying to colonize Mars. This quote is now very misstated as our society continues to progress. 
5. "We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." -Decca recording company on declining to sign the Beatles, 1962
• Decca must really regret their decision to not sign one of the most famous bands of all time. The Beatles gained 17 number one hits and sold 1.89 million copies of "She Loves You". To date, the Beatles have sold over 1 billion records and have recorded four of the top 10 greatest albums of all time, according to Rolling Stone magazine. Needless to say, the Beatles are legends and will go down in history as one of the greatest groups of all time. 

Predictions from the Internet

1. "The cinema is little more than a fad. It's canned drama. What audiences really want to see is flesh and blood on the stage." -Charlie Chaplin, actor, producer, director and studio founder, 1916
• A singular movie has generated $3.4 billion in revenue. It is safe to make the assumption that movies have outperformed live plays over and over again. Additionally, we are seeing the trend of people watching movies and home or on their personal devices like laptops and tablets. Every year, fewer people attend live plays as TV shows and movies on the internet are much more accessible and convenient for our generation- mostly due to advances in our technological devices. 
2. "The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys." -Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer, British Post Office, 1878
• In 1878, the first telephone line was constructed. By the 1900's almost 600,000 phones were in the Bell's telephone system- this number skyrocketed to 2.2 million by 1905, and 5.8 million by 1910. In 1915 the transcontinental telephone line was operating. The invention of the telephone quickly and aggressively took out all other types of messaging services because nothing could compete with the effectiveness and efficiency that the telephone provided. Sir William Preece may have thought this at the time, but it is clear this invention revolutionized communication. 
3. "Three hour shifts or a fifteen-hour work week" -John Maynard Keynes, 1930
• John Maynard Keynes claimed that by now, our society would only need to work fifteen hour weeks. While I believe many wish this was true, his prediction is sadly, very far off from our society's current state. Although the average work week of hours has decrease over time, most people still tend to abide by the forty hour work week. 
4. "I must confess that my imagination refuses to see any sort of submarine doing anything but suffocating its crew and floundering at sea" -H.G. Wells
• Submarines today are used to perform specialized and difficult expeditions and military operations. They are also virtually undetectable and can be very useful crafts in any war. In a submarine you are hidden and do not run the risk of being attacked. There is a variety of different functions that a submarine can perform that have been very useful to our military for many years- making them useful, not useless. 
5. "Two years from now, spam will be solved" -Bill Gates, 2004
• Although Bill Gates is a genius, one thing he was wrong about is getting spam. I get about 17 spam emails every single day in my spam folder in my gmail account. Although there has been a slight solution to the problem (i.e. spam folder), the issue of "spam" is not completed solved, and may never be. Since it is 2015 and spam is still around, I am not confident that this issue will disappear. Additionally, and more importantly, I do not think spam is the most pressing issue at the time, and that may be why it is taking so long to permanently get rid of spam.